Whatever the case, a wounded ISS will have been fairly rotten luck. Back in 2017, scientists from NASA and a Russian space contractor put the odds of this worst-case scenario at 1 in 121. As of late 2025, NASA told WIRED the risk of debris causing a depressurization event in any six-month period was somewhere between 1 in 36 and 1 in 170.
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The Beckham bandwagon gives Cruz many advantages, of course. The number of guitars he played on stage on Wednesday would be beyond the reach of the average new artist, for a start.
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